Expectancy model

This one is not written up yet

The definition above is the short version. A full explanation — how it works, a worked example and the exam traps — is still being written. In the meantime the chapter below covers it in context.

Written up from the same chapter

• BackwardationA market in which the futures price sits below the spot price — the cost of carry says futures should be dearer, and something is overriding it.
• Base priceThe reference price a contract starts each trading day from — the theoretical futures price on the day it is introduced, and the previous day's daily settlement price on every day after.
• BasisThe difference between the spot price and the futures price of an asset — positive when spot exceeds futures, negative when futures exceeds spot, and zero at expiry.
• Cheapest-to-deliverThe bond in the deliverable basket that costs a futures seller least to deliver — and, because the seller chooses, the bond whose cash price the futures contract actually tracks.
• ContangoA market in which the futures price sits above the spot price, normally because the futures buyer is paying for the cost of carrying the commodity through to delivery.
• Contract valuePrice or rate multiplied by the lot size or contract multiplier — the number margins, brokerage, transaction charges and regulatory fees are all computed from, and different for every contract.