Expectations model
The view that the futures price is simply the expected spot price of the asset at maturity, so futures may trade at a premium or discount and indicate the expected direction of spot prices — especially where an asset…
This one is not written up yet
The definition above is the short version. A full explanation — how it works, a worked example and the exam traps — is still being written. In the meantime the chapter below covers it in context.
Written up from the same chapter
- BasisThe difference between the spot price and the futures price of an asset — positive when spot exceeds futures, negative when futures exceeds spot, and zero at expiry.
- Contango and backwardationThe two shapes a commodity futures curve can take — contango when the futures price is above spot, backwardation when it is below.
- Convenience yieldThe rupee benefit of physically holding a commodity rather than holding a futures contract on it — the term that lets a futures price fall below spot plus carry.
- ConvergenceThe certainty that a futures price and the spot price of its underlying meet at expiry — because on the last trading day the contract settles at the cash market price, leaving no room for a difference.
- Daily Settlement PriceThe price at which every open futures position is marked and reset at the end of each day — the last 30 minutes' volume weighted average price of that contract, computed separately for each expiry.
- Final Settlement PriceThe price at which a commodity derivative is finally settled at expiry — a simple average of the polled spot prices of the expiry day and the two days before it.
Where this is taught
Free preparation for NISM Series V-D← All terms