NISM Professor

Technical analysis

Also written Charting

Forecasting price direction from past price and volume alone, on the assumption that everything worth knowing about a company is already in its price.

In plain language

A technical analyst does not read the annual report. The argument is that there is no need to: everything that could affect the share — company fundamentals, economic conditions, market sentiment — is already reflected in the price. What is left to study is the price itself, and the volume that accompanied it.

So the work is done on charts. Trends are identified and followed; support and resistance levels are marked; patterns that have preceded moves before are looked for again.

How it works

Chapter 15 sets out five assumptions:

  1. Price discounts everything — all information, economic, political and psychological, is already in the market price.
  2. Price moves in trends — up, down or sideways, and an established trend is more likely to continue than to reverse.
  3. History repeats itself — market behaviour is cyclical and driven by human psychology, so patterns recur.
  4. Market action is predictable, to a degree — recurring patterns offer probabilistic insight, not certainty. The workbook adds that technical analysis is about managing risk, not guaranteeing outcomes.
  5. Volume confirms price — high volume on a breakout or reversal adds credibility to the move.

Chapter 4 puts the same thing as three essential elements: the history of past prices indicates the underlying trend; the volume accompanying price movements indicates the strength of that trend; and the time span over which price and volume operate carries the impact of longer-term factors.

The tools are chart types (line, bar, candlestick, point and figure), support and resistance, trendlines, and indicators such as moving averages, MACD, RSI and Bollinger Bands.

A worked example

A mid-cap share has traded between Rs 420 and Rs 465 for three months. It closes at Rs 471 on volume of 42 lakh shares against a 20-day average of 11 lakh.

The technical reading: an established resistance at Rs 465 has broken on nearly four times normal volume, so the move has volume confirmation. Under role reversal, Rs 465 now becomes support, so a position can be sized against it.

Buy 10,000 shares at Rs 471 = Rs 47.10 lakh
Stop below the old resistance, at Rs 458
Risk = 10,000 × Rs 13       = Rs 1.30 lakh, 2.8% of the position

Now put the fundamental analyst in the same room. The company earned EPS of Rs 18, so at Rs 471 the share is on 26 times earnings against an industry average of 16×. On a 16× multiple the share is worth Rs 288.

Technical view:    buy the breakout at Rs 471
Fundamental view:  sell into it — 64% above fair value

Both are applying their method correctly. They disagree because they are answering different questions over different horizons: one is asking where the price goes next week, the other what the business is worth. Chapter 15.1 tabulates exactly that difference, and the exam asks about the table, not about who is right.

Why NISM asks about it

Chapter 15 is devoted to technical analysis and Chapter 4 (section 4.3) introduces it. The heavily examined item is the comparison table in 15.1 — focus, data source, time horizon, tools, assumptions, objectives and followers — together with the five core assumptions and the role of volume in confirming a trend.

Common exam traps

  • It is a short and medium-term method. Chapter 4.3 says technical analysis is less suitable for long-term investing, because business fundamentals do change over the long run and past price trends then become unreliable.
  • Volume confirms; it does not lead. A trend unaccompanied by volume indicates weakness in the trend (Chapter 4.3).
  • Chapter 15.1 says price reflects "all known and unknown information"; Chapter 15.3.1 says "all known information". The examinable idea is that the market discounts everything; the "unknown" wording appears once and is not the phrase to reproduce.
  • The workbook links the discounting tenet to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (Chapter 15.3.1) while saying in Chapter 4.4 that fundamental analysis contradicts EMH. Both statements are printed; each chapter's question wants its own.
  • In the workbook's vocabulary, chartists are traders and speculators (Chapter 4.1), not investors. That distinction is tested directly.
  • "Predictable to a degree" is the workbook's own hedge. Any option claiming technical analysis guarantees outcomes is wrong.

Check yourself

  1. 1.Which of the following is NOT one of the core assumptions of technical analysis listed in the workbook?

    1. a)Price discounts everything
    2. b)Price moves in trends
    3. c)Intrinsic value determines the market price over time
    4. d)Volume confirms price
    Show the answer

    Answer: (c) Intrinsic value determines the market price over time

    The workbook lists five assumptions: price discounts everything, price moves in trends, history repeats itself, market action is predictable to a degree, and volume confirms price.

    Intrinsic value determining price is the fundamental analyst’s position, and the comparison table draws the line explicitly: the technical assumption is that the current market price captures all the information, while fundamental analysis holds that prices may at times deviate from intrinsic value.

    The other three options are quoted assumptions and are therefore wrong answers to a "NOT" question.

  2. 2.In technical analysis, the impact of day-to-day fluctuations in prices is smoothened by which of the following?

    1. a)Increasing the time period of price charts
    2. b)Using a liquidity parameter along with prices
    3. c)Using moving averages
    4. d)None of the above
    Show the answer

    Answer: (c) Using moving averages

    This is one of the workbook's own sample questions. The text states: typically, chartists use moving average of the price of the stock to reduce the impact of day-to-day fluctuations in prices that may make it difficult to identify the trend.

    Option A is the designed trap — stretching the chart period changes what you see, but the workbook names the moving average as the smoothing device. Option B invents a technique the workbook does not describe; volume, not liquidity, is the parameter technical analysis pairs with price, and volume is used to confirm trend strength, not to smooth fluctuations.

  3. 3.According to the workbook, investment in the context of the securities market involves thorough analysis of the underlying security in terms of which three dimensions?

    1. a)Liquidity, taxation and convenience
    2. b)Safety/risk, income and growth potential
    3. c)Price, volume and time span
    4. d)Source, impact and certainty
    Show the answer

    Answer: (b) Safety/risk, income and growth potential

    The workbook's definition is precise: investment involves an upfront commitment of money to earn returns over an investment horizon, and it involves thorough analysis of the underlying security in terms of safety/risk, income, and growth potential.

    Option A lists factors used to judge an investment avenue in other syllabi, not this definition. Option C is the three essential elements of price behaviour in technical analysis — price history, volume and time span. Option D is the three-part test for whether information is insider information. All three wrong options are real lists from elsewhere, which is exactly how NISM builds distractors: learn each list attached to its own heading.

Where this is taught

Free preparation for NISM Series XV

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