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Volatility risk

The risk that a company's share price swings up and down over time, even when the company itself is not in danger of failing. One of the seven risks in the booklet.

In plain language

Share prices move every day. Sometimes they move a lot, for no reason that has anything to do with how well the company is doing.

That up-and-down movement is volatility, and the chance that it costs you money is volatility risk. The booklet defines it as "the risk when the stock prices of a company may fluctuate, even when those companies aren't in danger of failing."

The key words are "aren't in danger of failing". A sound company can still see its share price fall 20% in a bad month. If you have to sell in that month, you lose money, even though nothing is wrong with the business.

How it works

Where it sits. Chapter 5 lists seven key risks to check before investing: market (systematic) risk, unsystematic risk, inflation risk, liquidity risk, business risk, volatility risk and currency risk.

How it differs from its neighbours:

RiskWhat goes wrong
Business riskThe business itself may stop operating
Volatility riskThe share price swings, although the business is fine
Market (systematic) riskThe whole market or economy falls, e.g. bubbles and crashes

How the booklet says to manage it (Chapter 5):

  1. Invest through a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) of mutual funds, or buy shares in smaller lots over a period of time, instead of all at once.
  2. Understand the fundamentals of the company, so you can judge whether a price fall is about the company or only about the price.
  3. Ignore rumours and unsolicited messages about investing.

SIPs help because, in the booklet's words, "the investor benefits from the market volatility by getting to buy more units of the same fund when the markets are low and buying less units when the prices are high."

A worked example

Prices are illustrative.

Harpreet, in Ludhiana, has Rs 60,000 to invest in the shares of a well-run company. The price is Rs 300.

Plan A: all at once. She buys 200 shares for Rs 60,000. Next month the market is nervous and the price drops to Rs 240, though the company's sales are fine. Her holding is now worth Rs 48,000. If she panics and sells, she books a Rs 12,000 loss from volatility alone.

Plan B: in smaller lots. She invests Rs 20,000 each month for three months:

MonthPriceShares bought
1Rs 30066 (Rs 19,800)
2Rs 24083 (Rs 19,920)
3Rs 27074 (Rs 19,980)
Total223 shares for Rs 59,700

Her average cost is about Rs 267.71 (59,700 ÷ 223), below the Rs 300 she would have paid in Plan A. The dip that hurt Plan A let Plan B buy more shares cheaply.

Why NISM asks about it

Chapter 5 (Investment in Securities Market) lists volatility risk among the seven risks and gives the ways to manage it; the securities-market booklet repeats the definition among its key risks. Expect: which risk arises even when the company is not failing (volatility risk, not business risk), and how can it be managed (SIP, or buying in smaller lots over time).

Common exam traps

  • Volatility risk is not business risk. Business risk is about the company stopping operations; volatility risk is about the price swinging while the company is fine.
  • It is not the same as market risk. Market risk comes from the whole economy or market; volatility risk is described at the level of a company's share price.
  • The booklet's remedy is SIP or smaller lots over time, not putting all the money in at once.
  • Diversification (asset allocation) is the general remedy for risk; SIP and staggered buying are the specific remedy the booklet gives for volatility.
  • Buying in smaller lots lowers the impact of swings; it does not guarantee a profit.

Where this is taught

Free preparation for NISM Series SEBI-ICE

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